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White Mountain National Forest staff considered climate change effects and possible adaptation actions for a large integrated resource project.

The Pemigewasset Ranger District of the White Mountain National Forest is proposing to conduct timber harvesting and management activities for roads and recreation in the Lost River Project area. Activities would improve wildlife habitat diversity, provide a sustainable yield of wood products, improve forest and watershed health, and increase resiliency to climate change.

Project Area

Brook within a mature mixedwood forest
The Lost River project area is located on the Pemigewasset Ranger District of the White Mountain National Forest and covers roughly 35,700 acres of National Forest lands in the towns of Woodstock and Lincoln, New Hampshire.

The project area is covered by a mosaic of forest types including northern hardwood, mixedwood, spruce-fir, and aspen-birch. It consists of mainly closed-canopy mature forest stands interspersed with some younger stands. The closed canopy conditions promote the development of shade-tolerant species over shade intolerant species like aspen and birch. There are two permanent wildlife openings in the area which are managed to maintain valuable grass/shrub wildlife habitat.

Recreation resources in and nearby the project area include dispersed camping and kayaking at Elbow Pond and snowmobiling on the Warren to Woodstock snowmobile trail.

Management Goals

The primary purpose of the Lost River Project is to advance the goals, objectives, and desired conditions for vegetation, wildlife, recreation, and other resources as established in the White Mountain National Forest (WMNF) Land and Resource Management Plan (Forest Plan). The Forest Plan identifies the desired balance of multiple uses to meet public needs while providing the management framework for protecting, restoring, and enhancing our natural resources. The goals for each resource area within the Lost River project include:

  • Improve wetland habitat, reduce the number of road-stream crossings, and restore natural hydrological flow paths by relocating roads and removing large culverts.
  • Diversify species, age classes, and structure across all forest types present in the project area and promote future-adapted species regeneration.
  • Re-align stands with more compatible ecological land types (i.e., hardwood stands growing on hardwood sites).
  • Provide a range of camping opportunities on the forest including opportunities for dispersed camping while protecting water quality and other essential resources.
  • Support diverse wildlife habitats and maintain the viability of common species as well as threatened and endangered species (e.g., bats, wood turtles, monarchs, yellow-banded bees, moose, deer, bear).
  • Maintain healthy soil productivity in harvested stands by using BMPs and avoiding enriched sites.
  • Protect rare plant species (e.g., boreal bedstraw) and the natural communities they rely on.
  • Prevent the establishment and spread of invasive species.

Climate Change Impacts

For this project, the most important anticipated climate change impacts include:

Temperatures in New England are projected to increase 5.3 to 9.1 °F by late century (2071-2100), with the greatest warming expected to occur during winter.
Intense precipitation events are expected to continue to become more frequent in the region.
Winter is projected to be shorter and milder, with less precipitation falling as snow and reduced snow cover and depth.
The timing and amount of stream flow is expected to change over the next century across the region including more high streamflow days in winter and spring and low streamflow days in summer and fall.
Forest vegetation in the region may face increased risk of moisture deficit and drought during the growing season.
Many northern and boreal tree species are expected to face increasing stress across much of the region.
Certain insect pests and pathogens may increase in occurrence or become more damaging in the region (e.g., hemlock wooly adelgid).
Many invasive plants such as knotweed, coltsfoot, buckthorn, and others are expected to increase in extent or abundance in the region.

Challenges and Opportunities

Climate change will present challenges and opportunities for accomplishing the management objectives of this project, including:

Challenges

More severe storms and heavy rainfall events could increase erosion and sedimentation, impacting soil stability and stream water quality, and damaging infrastructure including roads and campsites.
Warmer and more variable winters pose challenges to the winter harvest season, especially on wetter sites (i.e., spruce-fir forest types). Less snow and ice cover may increase the potential for root and soil damage.
Hemlock is projected to decline in the project area due to the effects of climate change, susceptibility to hemlock woolly adelgid, and drought intolerance. This will make it more difficult to maintain the softwood component and stream shading.
Increases in invasive species and pests, drought stress, and ice damage will increase the risk of tree mortality, especially for species that are also projected to have poor/mixed climate change capability (i.e. balsam fir, beech, hemlock, paper birch)
Increases in visitation as the climate warms increases the risk of introducing invasive plants and pests and degrading soil and water quality.
Warmer winters and earlier winter snow thaw will result in more snowmobile trail closures. These may make it more difficult to compact and retain snow on the landscape and may make soils more vulnerable to freeze-thaw cycles.
Vernal pools and other wetland types may be particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns throughout the year.

Opportunities

Black birch, hickory, and other more southern-adapted species may have new suitable habitat in this area under future climate conditions which could increase species and habitat diversity on site.
Wetter spring seasons may improve desired tree species germination and decrease concern for spongy moth outbreaks.
Management activities that include thinning may be more important given the increased risk of drought during the growing season.
More frequent storm events and damage from pests may increase the amount of dead and downed wood (i.e., snags, large coarse woody material) and create additional roosting habitat for bats and other threatened and endangered species.
Heavy precipitation events can accelerate processes to help to restore natural hydrologic flow (i.e., increased in-stream wood loading and more dynamic river systems).
Dispersed camping sites currently in the project area are at a low development scale and present less infrastructure for potential loss.
Shorter windows for winter seasonal recreation uses may enable longer seasons for other recreation opportunities.

Adaptation Actions

Project participants used the Adaptation Workbook to develop several adaptation actions for this project, including:

Area/Topic
Approach
Tactics
Forestry/Silviculture
Establish diverse tree regeneration using shelterwood methods to promote white ash, sugar maple, red maple, yellow birch, and beech.
Conduct enrichment plantings of black birch, hickory, chestnut, and other native species.
Retain large buffer areas with softwood cover to maintain cold water stream temperature.
Conduct a low density thinning to hinder hemlock wooly adelgid damage, mortality, and spread and create structural diversity.
Maintain, establish, and/or release balsam fir and red spruce regeneration.
Hydrology/Soils
Relocate Elbow Pond Road out of the wetland area or improve drainage structures in the current footprint.
Actively decommission inactive roads (i.e., Crooked Pike Spur A).
Wildlife
Place cages around wood turtle nests to keep predators away.
Create artificial wood turtle nesting habitat closer to the stream.
Create artificial vernal pools.

Monitoring

Project participants identified several monitoring items that could help inform future management, including:
Photographic monitoring of wetland condition and extent after relocating or improving Elbow Pond Road.
Natural and artificial tree regeneration (indicators: seedling survival, growth, and browse).
Visitor use using National Visitor Use Monitoring surveys to evaluate how frequently existing designated campsites sites fill up.
Bear foraging post-implementation (indicator: presence of marks on beech trees).
Deeryard use (indicator: deer per acre; timeframe: annual winter monitoring).
Soil disturbance pre- and post-harvest (indicators: compaction and bare soil presence/extent).
Spread of Hemlock Wooly Adelgid (indicator: presence within 5 miles; timeframe: annual).

Next Steps

This project will continue to be refined, with an environment assessment released for public comment in 2024.

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