Short Summary
Lexington, the second largest city in Kentucky, is coextensive with Fayette county and located in the north-central part of the state. Known as the “Horse Capital of the World”, Lexington has a diverse cityscape confined within an urban boundary that protects its horse farms. The city has over 100 parks and is home to Raven Run Nature Sanctuary, a natural area located along the Kentucky River Palisades. Lexington has more than 53,000 street trees, including ash, oak, pear, maple, and sycamore as common species. Similar to many places in the country, Lexington is experiencing warmer temperatures and increased precipitation. Understanding tree species vulnerability and climate change impacts is crucial to developing and implementing adaptation actions in the region.
Tree Species Vulnerability
Species distribution modeling suggests that the changing climate will shift suitable habitat and heat and hardiness zones for various tree species in the Lexington region. In the tree species list identified for Lexington, 20 species have a low adaptability score, 64 species have a medium adaptability score, and 44 species have a high adaptability score. Climate change vulnerability of urban trees, including adaptive capacity and zone suitability under low and high emissions scenarios, is outlined in the tree species handout below.
Climate Change Impacts
While Kentucky has warmed less than most of the country, the state is facing an increase in the number of heat wave days, from about 15 per year to up to 70 by 2050. Summers are also getting muggier as the dewpoint temperature increases. Annual precipitation in Kentucky has increased by about 5% since 1950. Rainfall is projected to increase during the spring during the next 40-50 years, but increased evaporation due to increased temperatures is expected to offset greater rainfall. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to reduce crop yields and threaten aquatic ecosystems. More frequent flooding and longer, more severe droughts are also projected, making it more difficult to meet competing water demands.
Work With Us
To learn more about this project, contact Leslie.